Why Did 4X Beat Social Casino in the Fake Ad Race?
If you're wondering why Playtika, an OG Social Casino king, announced they are seemingly out of the casino games and committed to Solitaire...look no further. MoPoGo has held together the genre number, and when that game coughs, the genre catches a cold.
Unlike 4X and Merge, the casino has not been able to adapt - shocking considering MoPoGo's revolution is the casualization of these mechanics. MoPoGo demystifies slot machine resolution, adding far more compelling socio-competitive elements than traditional slots, allowing it to appeal beyond the genre when combined with the IP. Yet there's no follow-up to this, aside from one or two hypercasual-esque games making a half-hearted fake-ad attempt.
I use the term "fake ad" loosely, but of course, the ads are not fake. Much of the revolution was about building the early part of the funnel to stay consistent with the ads before gradually transitioning to a 4x core. And the 4x core is one of the highest monetizing known to man, given that it's associated with a competitive power auction based on simultaneous shards. High LTV means higher UA bids, and those who win the auction win the market.
Yet, social casino never captured this technique in the same way 4x did. What's more confusing to me is why the Japanese and Chinese never made a serious attempt in this genre, given their expertise and level of national gambling. Is Konami asleep at the wheel? Where is the market-level 4x Chinese firm, Century Games, on this? I'd much rather take a swing at Social Casino than...Truck Star.
It's entirely possible that real-world betting legalization, particularly in the United States, harmed revenues, although it's hard to discern any event-study relevant effects. This feels like an excuse rather than an explanation.
The final chapter hasn't been written here, and it won't be with Coin Master - Board Adventure, which has so far exhibited lukewarm KPIs. Instead, lineage (Board Kings, etc) leads to paradigm splits and subgenre formation - the most powerful moment in social casino has been the emergence of "coin looters," but this cycle needs to be pushed further.
This type of early genre innovation is exactly what the West specializes in. Given the Chinese inactivity here, it's another opportunity for us to take the lead, as long as we can get over our own "ick" factor.